ZigZag Indicator: The Ultimate Guide Vladimir Ribakov
ZigZag Indicator: The Ultimate Guide Vladimir Ribakov
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Why some people relapse after 90/180/360 days + The Tapering Strategy
Hello. I’ve been inspired to write this short message on why some people relapse because of a recent post I read from a very frustrated young man here on noFap, and I’ll also share with you a unique strategy commonly used in alcoholic patients that you may find helpful. So, without further ado, here we go: Why do some people relapse after 90/180/360 days? You’d think that a guy who makes it to 90 days would be free from PMO forever, right? Well, based on the amount of reports we’re seeing here on noFap, it’s fairly obvious that some people who reach three, six, even twelve months of hard mode fall back into the habit. Most of the reasons given is that urges suddenly “creeps up on them”, usually during a “bad day”. In my opinion, the main reason for this is a misconception of how the body works during addiction recovery. You’ve probably seen that famous Lord Of The Rings noFap poster that features old-Theoden as Day 0, then new-Theoden as day 20, then Aragorn as day 40, the grey-Gandalf as Day 60, then white-Gandalf as Day 90. It’s all very inspiring, but this is absolute hogwash because it pretends that addiction recovery is a linear progress like this: Diagram of noFap progress as linear Basically, the claim is that if you start noFap, then the superpowers will just keep on growing nonstop, forever, past 90 days and onward. This is impossible! No matter what you do, a human being simply cannot keep maturing at a constant pace. It will have to pull back eventually and regroup, making it seem as if noFap has suddenly stopped working, when in fact the body and brain are just taking a break to get ready for another surge. Rather than a straight line, PMO recovery actually looks more like this: Diagram of noFap progress as bouncing If you think this is far out, take a look at the stock/forex/indices markets: Diagram of the S&P with the same principle In the example above, the S&P is clearly dominating, but notice that it keeps bouncing up and down in a zigzag pattern despite a general uptrend. A poor trader zooms in only in that particular moment and think that the downward bounce is indicative that the S&P is finally going to fail. If he bet money on it, he’d be broke by now. Every bounce downward is only TEMPORARY. If you zoom out and see the big picture, you’ll clearly notice that the general trend is still going upward. Same with noFap. After 30 days, the body will stop producing superpowers, and your self esteem will drop. If you focus only on that moment, you might think that noFap is a failure and will likely relapse. However, if you hold on, you’ll soon figure out that the body was simply SHORING UP RESOURCES to resume for ANOTHER PUSH upward, just like when the ocean has to pull back in order to make a bigger tide. You’d have wasted a month if you gave in to the temporary lapse when nothing is happening! The Tapering Strategy For severe PMO addicts, I'd like to share a strategy that I learned back in my days working at a rehab clinic. Basically, some alcoholics are so addicted that a sudden cold turkey (i.e. quitting outright) will lead to the body reacting so violently that it will often cause the patient to have seizures and die. Obviously, PMO doesn’t cause us to die when we stop, but the withdrawal symptoms for some will be so harsh that it would feel like dying, so they relapse. What’s the solution? Taper it! What the alcoholics are usually advised is to slowly ratchet down the amount of drinks they take. They can still drink, only that the amount will decrease by minute portions everyday until it finally drops to zero. This way, the body can adjust normally, and the willpower to quit won’t suddenly give out. Applying that to noFap, here’s what it might look like: Day 1 – PMO as much as you like Day 2 – Break Day 3 – PMO as much as you like Day 4 – Break Day 5 – Break Day 6 – PMO as much as you like Day 7 – Break Day 8 – Break Day 9 – Break Day 10 – PMO as much as you like …and so on. This might seem counterintuitive, but you are able to train your willpower by slowly ratcheting up the challenge rather than biting on a piece of stick and going 90-days hard mode at once. I don’t care who you are, you can certainly do one day of no PMO! And after you’ve had your “fix”, you can try to do two days clean. Then get your “fix” again, then do three days clean, and so on, until the intervals between sessions grow wide enough as to render PMO irrelevant. This way, the addiction becomes much more managable to kick. Of course, it’s not a guarantee of success, but who knows? If you're a hard case PMO addict, give it a try! I hope you like my post. Long Live and Prosper! TL;DR noFap works in a zigzag pattern, not a linear progression. Also, you might want to space out your PMO rather than go cold turkey.
post with charts http://hurstcycles.com/bitcoin-again/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HurstCycles+%28Hurst+Cycles%29#sthash.an2xXf3s.dpbs Bitcoin again … This entry was posted in Analysis Forex Analysis on January 19, 2018 by David Hickson. In my previous post I wrote about Bitcoin, and presented an argument for the fact that Hurst cycles are active in the price fluctuations of this new currency. I concluded that post by stating that I believed a peak of 42-month magnitude was due to occur soon. I published the post on 16 December 2017, and on 17 December – the very next day (Bitcoin trades on a Saturday and Sunday) the coin reached a high price of $19,870 and promptly turned downwards. Just over a month later the coin dropped below $10,000, having lost nearly 50% of its value. When I wrote the post in December, I was inspired to do so by the constant media coverage of Bitcoin – to the extent that pretty much the first thing anybody asked on hearing that I had an interest in financial markets was “What do you think of Bitcoin?” I am a dyed in the wool contrarian, and my first reaction when an investment instrument is making headlines, and everybody is wanting to “get on board for the ride”, is to expect a peak to form and the price to fall. The Hurst cycles analysis indicated that indeed a peak was due, supporting the contrarian view. As an aside here: I was asked in December to provide advice to someone who was very keen to buy Bitcoin. I realized the extent of the bullish fever when my advice not to buy because I believed the value was about to fall was greeted with disappointment, and a response of “Are you sure? Isn’t it possible that you got it wrong?” Bitcoin was clearly inspiring some of the feverish “madness” that inspired bubbles such as the Tulip craze in the 1600’s. A month later I find myself inspired again to write a post about Bitcoin … again because of the media coverage and hype around this investment. However now media coverage is mostly on the other side, as demonstrated by this headline: Not so bullish ... There are many people crying “I told you so” because of the dramatic drop in value of Bitcoin, and claiming that Bitcoin’s future as a currency is over. However I am not one of them… As a contrarian, when the media starts ringing the death bells, I take an interest again. And of course my interest leads me to turn to the cycles to ask what is happening. Is Bitcoin going to turn into a 21st-century example of the Tulip craze? I cannot provide a definitive answer to that question, however I believe we are at a critical juncture. If Bitcoin is able to settle into the natural rhythm of a currency, and start exhibiting clean “normal” Hurst cycles, then I believe the answer to that question is no, and Bitcoin will earn itself a place as a regular (if particularly volatile) currency. If Bitcoin fails to settle into a regular Hurst cycles pattern, then indeed we might look back on it as an example of how the madness of crowds continues into the 21st century. I am inclined to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt, because it has recently been exhibiting good clean cycle structure as shown in this chart below. As discussed in my previous post, I believe that it is exhibiting the characteristics of an instrument that has synchronized peaks, which makes the peaks much more easy to identify than the troughs. In the chart below note how the circles and whiskers to the right hand side of the chart (in the area of the future, where there is no price data), are much clearer at the top of the chart (where the peaks are projected), then they are at the foot of the chart (where the troughs are projected). A peak has formed Nevertheless there is a discernible rhythm in the troughs, even if the variation in wavelength is a bit wider than it is for the peaks. The reason why I say that Bitcoin is now at a critical juncture, is that we are expecting a 20-week trough to form. If a good clear trough does form at this point then we would expect the value of the coin to bounce up from that 20-week low, and its response to the Hurst cycle influence would encourage me to believe that Bitcoin is finding its feet as a new currency, moved by the same cycles that move all other currencies. (As a matter of interest the question marks at the foot of the chart beneath Wednesday’s trading bar indicate that it is possible that 20 week trough formed on Wednesday). Another very encouraging feature of the recent price action is that it has fulfilled a perfect “zigzag” move for the 20-week cycle from the peak on 17th December to the potential trough on Wednesday 17 January. This chart shows how Sentient Trader’s zigzag feature plots that zigzag downward move, and because of the perfection of that move, is already assuming that the move is complete and that the next move to expect is an upwards bounce out of the 20 week cycle trough. 20-week zig-zag Optimists amongst you will notice that the projection for the 20-week zigzag move up takes us off the chart to new high prices. I should caution you to take that projection with a pinch of salt, because it is based on recent moves out of the 20-week cycle trough, which have of course all been extraordinarily bullish. The zigzag tool considers each cycle in isolation, and does not consider the effect of that large and ominous peak in the middle of December. If that is indeed a peak of the 42-month cycle, then the bounce out of the 20-week cycle at this stage will not be nearly as impressive. To temper our enthusiasm for this bounce it is worth pointing out that this bounce is going to provide the correction for the 40-week cycle zigzag downwards from the peak in December to a trough expected in late March or early April, as shown in this chart: 40-week zig-zag The dashed line there shows the downward movement of the 40 week cycle, and the dotted upwards pointing line is the bounce that the 20 week cycle trough should give us on the way down to the 40 week cycle low. Considering the combination of all these different cycles is what makes understanding a Hurst cycles analysis such a fascinating and complex process. Another tool which gives us a way of visualizing the implications of an analysis is the Composite Model Line, a relatively new feature in Sentient Trader which simply takes the cycle information derived from the analysis on the chart and “puts it back together” if you like, thereby composing a purely cyclic price action, in other words a hypothetical price action created by the combination of the cycles that have been identified in the market. This line is then projected forwards, on the basis that the cycles will keep beating with the same wavelength and amplitude (in fact the line assumes that the wavelength and amplitude of each cycle will return to average values if they are currently extended). This line should not be used as an absolute forecasting tool because we know that cycles are dynamic, and are constantly varying in their wavelength and amplitude, but it is nevertheless a useful tool to give us an idea of what to expect on the basis of the analysis on the chart. Here is the Composite Model Line for this analysis: Composite Model Line You can see that the CML is indicating that the market is expected to turn up now, as it forms the 20-week cycle trough. It is expected to move up into early February where an 80-day cycle peak is expected to form. It will then move down again, into the middle of February before turning back up again to form the 20-week cycle peak expected sometime in April. What has happened to that move down that we saw in the zigzag for the 40 week cycle? This is where the CML is so useful. The fact that we can hardly see any evidence of price coming down into that 40-week cycle trough indicates that the combination of the many cycles that influence the price action is likely to reduce the impact of that 40-week cycle move downwards. In simple terms we could explain this as the bullish impetus of the move up into the 20-week cycle peak cancelling out the bearish impetus of the move down into the 40-week cycle trough. But looking ahead a few months and debating which cycle will prove more dominant at that point is an uncertain business at best. The important point that I wish to make here is that a 20-week cycle trough is expected to form. If the value of Bitcoin increases at this point and shows that it is responding to that 20-week cycle, then our confidence in the fact that Bitcoin is settling into the natural rhythm of the cycles will increase. What happens after that remains shrouded in some uncertainty, but as time passes and our confidence in the cycles moving Bitcoin either increases or decreases, we will be in a better position to resolve that uncertainty. About David Hickson I have been trading for over 20 years, but only had any success after discovering Hurst's cyclic principles. Unable to find any software to speed up the analysis process I created Sentient Trader software, which now pretty much does all the analysis for me. I am a film maker and a TV director, but nowadays I mostly provide consultation services to professional traders and fund managers, helping them to integrate Hurst analysis into their trading. I'm South African and live with my family in Italy.
The indicator also helps in visually reducing noise, helping technical traders to see larger picture patterns and the general market direction. How to Use the Zig Zag Indicator in Forex. As we stated earlier, this indicator can be used in a number of ways. It can help Elliot Waves traders with wave counts and act as a confirmation tool. The Zig Zag indicator shows when a trend could be reversing, but the trader will compare that indication against other trading tools they use in order to execute their strategy. Common forex ... The ZigZag Strategy utilizes the ZigZag MT4 Indicator (obviously!) to spot momentum changes in the Forex pair. This is a momentum indicator and can be used to detect when the momentum of a currency pair is rising or waning, and thus serves as a basis for determining possible reversal points. . The key to the use of the ZigZag indicator is to determine when the market is ripe for reversal. And ... If you are looking for How To Use Zigzag Indicator In Forex And Which Indicator F This indicator is based on the Weis Wave described by David H. Weis in his book Trades About to Happen: A Modern Adaptation of the Wyckoff Method, more info how to use this indicator can be found in this video . The Weis Wave is an adaptation of Richard D. Wyckoff’s method Wave Charts. It works in all time periods and can be applied to all ... The zigzag indicator is one of the default technical indicators that come with your trading platform (MetaTrader4, TradingView, etc.). How to Trade with the Zigzag Indicator. The ZigZag swing trading strategy presented below requires the use of one particular indicator. The Fibonacci extension indicator will be used to additionally confirm the ... The Zig Zag indicator is a trading tool used by forex traders to analyze the forex market for trend reversals. It can help to determine key support and resistance levels along with significant changes in price action whilst also filtering out short-term fluctuations. The Zig Zag indicator can help to eliminate the noise that can occur every day in various market conditions. How to Use the Zig Zag Indicator to Locate Trends and Waves. Technical Analysis; Jan 15, 2018. 2. We all know that when looking at a chart it can be difficult to pinpoint precisely when a trend is turning, even in hindsight. Most chart indicators work on averages and a by-product of this is that they smooth away valuable information. This loss of information means we won’t always see price ... The ZigZag indicator feature on SharpCharts is not an indicator per se, but rather a means to filter out smaller price movements. A ZigZag set at 10% would ignore...
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